Johnson’s staying and we’ll all pay, but better days are coming

Johsons’s staying. For now. There’s nothing to add about the sacrifices made and not made. Little more than can be said about the contrast between personal trauma and Downing Street parties, community rules and privileged power.

We will pay the price in subtle ways. A modern national reputation for democratic fair play, albeit inconsistent, is weakened.

Businesses and talented people favour countries that can be trusted. International diplomacy relies on a basic reliability, despite the espionage and strategic game-playing.

Amongst all the pain and hope of the pandemic years, there is a hunger for the war to be over. A desire for better days. A national mood shifting from “everything is wrong with the direction of our country” to “will somebody please pain a picture of a brighter future?”.

Labour is moving towards its new story of security, prosperity and respect. The concepts aren’t new, but they’ve picked the right words. We wait to see the policy substance emerge. The memorable ideas to make people follow, to feel just a little bit inspired and optimistic about their future. It’s telling that ‘new Britain’ has been revived from the New Labour days.

But Starmer can probably only win with a resurgent Liberal Democrats taking Conservative seats, where they are second, and Labour can’t win. Their pitch is uncertain. There are no doubt many strong policies, born of their strong evidence-based decisions. It’s unlikely that many could name them. The leadership needs a stronger voice.

Johnson hopes to be saved by another war, this time in confusing territories for most Britons, distinct from a virus visiting your home.

He’ll sprinkle some feel-good summer jubilee boosterism. He looks to Gove’s Big Consulting-style lengthy list of levelling up policies. He’s running out of time to deliver well-paid jobs with prospects, to fill the empty shop units, to improve connections, to re-balance property wealth.

Johnson always liked the idea of the job more than the description of the work. He was schooled to direct others, rather than immerse himself in detail or even create a coherent vision. In the end, progress that people feel in their everyday lives triumphs cynical blaggery.

As after the MP expenses scandal, there is a space, a moment for reform. The spirit of community and sacrifice will not be forgotten. We’re more aware of the injustices of the past. The last decade has been dominated by a resurgent old class protecting its privilege. The under 40s - socially liberal, globally aware - are about to take back control.